Every 11 years, the sun’s activity keeps the peak in a solar maximum, which exposes powerful geomagnetic storms that warm and expand the upper atmosphere of the Earth. This increases the atmospheric pulling on additional heating satellites. Starlink (Spacex’s network of thousands of satellites) is designed for a orbital lifetime of about five years. NASA scientists asked if solar storms could trim these classes. In a new ARXIV study, researchers analyzed tracking data for 523 starlink satellites between 2020 and 2024 (growing solar cycle 25). They found that during the active solar period, satellites lost height and soon entered the quiet conditions.
Nasa study of starlink re-entries
As StudyResearchers used public TLE tracking data to investigate hundreds of Starlink Deorbit events. By aligning the lineage of each satellite around a reference height (280 km), he showed that higher Geo -focus activity Drives fast orbital decay. During a severe storm, the final decline from 280 km took only 7 days, while compared to 16 days under cool circumstances. In practice, this means that intensive storms were shaving for about 10–12 days from the last dynasty stage of satellites.
The team credits the impact to increase thermosferic heating and drag during storms. For example, a storm inspired the 37 starlinks to re -enter only 5 days (vs. 15 days normally). With a plan of thousands of more satellites, the authors would be important to manage these accelerations that improve orbital prediction during solar maxima.
Implications and monitoring
Conclusions highlight new risks to large constellations. Greater atmospheric drag not only reduces mission life, but can also increase the risk of conflict in crowded classes. Unplanned, rapidly re -entries also complicate settlement plans: unpredictable falling satellites cannot completely burn. In fact, a piece of a Starlink satellite landed on a Canadian farm during the previous solar maximum in August 2024.
Researchers concluded that such as megaconstalls expands, accurate tracking and prediction would be important. Close monitoring during solar storms can help avoid in-orbit collisions and ensure that the debris is safely burnt before reaching the Earth.